The opportunity cost of living with intuitive bias…
As a race, we have
evolved more rapidly in technology during the last 100 years then we have in
the last 10,000 years. In fact, Science Daily claimed in 2013 that 90% of the world’s
data has being produced between 2011 and 2013. A staggering fact when you think
of the amount of keystrokes, touches, swipes and scans that make up that 90%!
So, we stand on the
shoulders of giants who have given us the means to arm ourselves with any kind
of data we need to meet our daily challenges, yet our evolution into Technology
has some hallmarks that are as old as mind-kind itself, such as intuitive bias.
Intuitive bias is the
preferences we gravitate to consciously and subconsciously based on a summation
of our past experiences. Ever look at a problem and get that “perfect fit”
feeling in a solution that came super quick? Thats intuitive bias at work! We
use our intiutitve bias in quick decisioning often on major issues, which gives
rise to inherent flaws such as:
Past
Assumptions - The
need to deliver especially in a group setting, which invariably leads to short
cuts for the individual in order to fulfill his/her part of what essentially is
a social contract. Its human nature especially first time round to collect the
majority of the information needed to frame a solution to the task, using
deductive reasoning and past experience to assume the rest. If it fits, it
fits! The problem is that the % of fact fitting that is in a solution alters
for any new solutions and thus the % of assumed information increases thus
skewing a factual outcome. In general, the longer something assumed is used,
the more ‘real’ it gets’.
Fact
Filtering - We
can slip into a habit of filtering out facts that don’t fit our “world view”,
thus ignoring them or rebuking the facts to the input source such as a co
worker, customer or contractor working with us. This often comes across as
arrogance, which may or may not be intentional. The problem however remains
that intuitive bias leads to a snap decision rejecting new data that is
relevant to the situation at hand.
Outdated
Facts - I always love hearing a
guy slap down a peer or subordinate with a “naughty boy” speech and declare an
outdated solution for the problem. When pressed on this magical outcome and the
facts around it, the reluctant answers always point to intuitive bias and what
worked back in the day. Technology is changing our world faster than ever
before and thus the value of previous experience is being depreciated by a lack
of context to today’s reality.
Dogmatism - We have propensities for risk, which
are linked to our resistance to change (dogmatism). In general we get more
dogmatic as we grow older and have to work harder at remaining open minded and
mentally flexible. It makes perfect sense when you think of the practicalities
involved. The older we are the more information we have to fall back on thus
intuitive bias is something we are more willing to use for more and more
decisions.
Creative
Thinking -
Those who are creative thinkers are often high EQ folks with high levels of
risk propensity and lower levels of dogmatism (type Y orientation) than someone
who is more order driven and craves the security therein (type X orientation).
The perfect mix between the two is someone with a risk propensity high enough
and a dogma level low enough to allow creative ‘out of box’ thinking to thrive,
yet appreciate the structure of the operating environment and the team setting
they are in. Intuitive bias can suppress creative thinking over time in a
situation that demands process obedience over expressionism. The attachment to
pre-existing order regardless of its effectiveness becomes a dependency and
with it the rise of intuitive bias as the secret sauce to ‘fit in’ at all
costs, at the office.
So leaving a life of
tedium aside for a brighter day to follow, technology has risen to support and
advance the world we collectively want to live in, so why is intuitive bias
such a powerful force in a world that can make generational leaps in technology
in a few short years? It’s down to this, intuitive bias basically works, but at
an opportunity cost! If we can get data relevant to our problem, structure it
in a manner that defines our problem and with analysis frames a solution; then
we are in the 21st century hotseat of data driven decision making. It will
bring us most of the way to a data driven solution, which in today’s
information age is when we then use our intuitive bias to query the insights
gained from the analysis along with the accuracy of said insights to outcomes.
We should always question and we will never stop learning! The quality of our
decisions in terms of accuracy and content will push greater and greater
progress on our march through time with Technology. However, should we become
frail and yield unquestionably to the pre existing dominance of intuitive bias,
then our Technology will be as limited as the luck we have through the ‘gut’
decisions we make.
I for one look forward
to delivering a better world to our children’s children by never stopping my
push forward in continuous learning and question what I see when it does not
prove itself to me as facts worth accepting. In doing so, I hope to deliver
better outcomes to our combined future. What do you think, are we under the
thumb of our own intuitive bias??.. Do leave a comment with your opinion...
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