Can it really be done?
When talking about his views on innovation,
Steve Jobs famously referenced Ice Hockey legend Wayne Gretzky when he said “There's an old Wayne Gretzky quote that I love. 'I skate to where the
puck is going to be, not where it has been.' And we've always tried to do that
at Apple. Since the very very beginning. And we always will.” There is no doubt that Steve Jobs was remarkably insightful in his
vision for the future of Apple and through his vision, great products like the
iPhone were born against the backdrop of great risks in their development which
could have ended the giant corporation we know today.
So, is Steve Jobs part of small cadre of
visionary leaders who can see where “the puck” is going to be, or is there a
science and logic behind his mastery of innovation that everybody could use?
Firstly, when thinking innovation and where
the ‘puck will be’, we need look at
environmental risks in markets, what trends, etc. People tend to looks inwards,
not outwards for their first and often most impacting source of information,
which is ‘their gut”. Intuitive bias can be powerful if balanced against good
environmental data analysis and an in-depth understanding of internal process,
market/industry practices, wider environmental factors that impact the market
place and how they all interact with each other. It is important to find this
balance so one’s intuitive thoughts can be based on current facts, rather then
assumptions reached through deductive reasoning based on past experience.
Armed with researched knowledge, an
understanding of the company’s current operational state and the interacting
markets one does business with, we should gain some tentative foresight of how
the marketplace will act in the short to medium term assuming no product,
industry or market disruption takes place. It is a good idea to map the
elements from the top down out in a multi layered process flow map using time
as the axis of advance, noting the relevant milestones and events that define
the operating environment.
If ‘many hands make light work’, then ‘many
minds make power a better look’. Try to bring in trusted and qualified business
and technical experts to brainstorm new product concepts in a group setting
with sharing/analysis of the above to give rise to an in-depth exploration of
the newly created maps projecting a course and trajectory over the short to
medium term through direct analysis and scenario planning. It is however important to manage the group
process and insert controls to keep the group input balanced and allow less
dominant members to contribute meaningfully. After all, if all are chosen well,
all should input positively for that reason.
Outcomes from an analysis session should
complete the map of the future where the industry(s) are evaluated in terms of
course progression, how they would interact with a possible ‘X’ disrupter at product,
product line and industry level along with how it would affect complementary
product lines and industries? Also, what external interactions (regulatory,
etc.) would take place and how it would map out as the axis of time progresses?
It’s important to take a wide view using multiple scenarios ranking them in
probability so opportunities via product innovation can be defined with an
initial understanding of how feasible the market conditions will be to support
such development. The follow on actions would be the starting point for project
proposals in new product development based on this new and ranked foresight of actionable
market wants and needs.
Its important to stress the above steps are
very high level and great attention to detail is needed when exploring how and
where the “puck” will be. The game of chess we call life has many unforeseen
circumstances which we need to account for as best we can. Whilst we can to a certain degree of accuracy
map out where the puck will be with insightful and skilled colleagues
collaborating in a high functioning and well-led group, we cannot replicate the
savant like abilities of Steve Jobs who appeared to take the short cut to the
same place innovating earlier, developing earlier and getting to market with
products that delight customers to this very day. That said, process may not
replicate the savant like brilliance of people like Steve Jobs, but it does a
good job at replicating a close second in-terms of outputs, which I’m sure
Steve Jobs would be proud of.
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