Monday, 6 July 2015

Intuition and Strategic Decisions...

Are yesterday’s successes a road map for tomorrow’s data driven world? 


We all marvel at the technological innovations that have changed the world at an astounding pace. From Silicon Valley California to Silicon Docks Dublin, the rate of innovation and value adding contributions to tomorrow’s world is truly a sight to behold!

What we often overlook is the human behaviours that lie beneath the surface in tech savvy business that could reasonably give cause for alarm, yet are handled daily by human beings getting on with their lives and progressing their business interests. When we humans have to make big decisions against an unreasonably tight time frame, we fall instinctively on our intuition to fill the time deficit and come out with an answer that makes sense.

After all, if it worked for our parents, our mentors and seniors in the workplace, then why cant we sit “in the big chair” and be equally if not more successful? Its noteworthy that our success using our intuition is not a matter of skill… it’s really a matter of luck when overusing our intuition in big decisions. Over 80% of senior US Executives reportedly did so in a McKinsey & Co survey I read some years ago! In doing so, we trade expediency of decision making for factual understanding of the topic and it’s context.

When working through the world of our fathers and evaluating the need for data driven strategic decision making in the world of our sons, the following is something I have reflected upon in such an evaluation:

Hyper connectivity – We have a distributed technological infrastructure that allows us to access more and more information in a more and more sophisticated manner and on a global scale. We can communicate instantly at a very low cost on a global scale and unsurprisingly we do just that!

Complexity Explosion – With dramatic increases in access to data, it’s becoming more and more clear that data driven decisions make for better outcomes. However, opportunities to adopt are still abound. On modern oil platforms, approximately **40,000 sensor tags could be deployed with currently installed systems but only a minority are actually used mainly for safety and regulatory tasks. What data could be garnered from using 100% deployment of the sensors and what could be done with it??


Faster World - We need to refine our thinking down to logic derived from data sets, as solely using a summation of our past experiences is no longer a luxury we can afford! Data driven decisions are now possible to do at scale and soon will be a requirement for maintaining a competitive edge! In short, we have less time to react when we get it wrong, so intending to be right first time needs to become policy! Intuition needs to become a minority contribution to any strategic decision-making process. It needs to surrender dominance to data driven insights, deductive reasoning and the resulting picture it presents to the executive or executive team engaged in the decision making process. If done right, executives can then use their intuition in the context of a data driven fact-based environment reducing the propensity to make wild card comparisons between the current scenario and aggregate insights from former, often unrelated experiences.

So, big data may have being ignored but we now need to tap into it to make better strategic decisions! Where do we start, how do we do it??

A difficult question, which requires customised knowledge of your business and situation. However, I submit the following is a great place to start:

Understand your problem. Define it in terms of where did it come from, what it impacts and what elements impacted have dependencies on seemingly unrelated elements inside or outside your company (e.g. regulatory, customers, etc)??? It’s always good to map them out.

Risk Assessment. If you have a risk assessment of the problem, review it for any red flags that relate to your defined problem and insights gained by the solutions proposed therein.

Data Interoperability. Are your in-house databases structured well by design? Are they SQL/RDBMS, NoSQL and/or Cloud? Is your network distributed and if so, are external vendor nodes present from the cloud? Is your data normalised (maintaining normal forms through data table parent/child relationships on RDBMS) or de-normalised (large record by row tables)? Are you set up for semi-structured data (JSON file readability)?

Data Integrity. Is the data housed in your data warehouse meaningful to your business and is it maintained properly with duplicates removed accurately and data maintained in a timely fashion?  Do you attach meaningful keys to records for RDBMS and/or keys to key value pairs outside of RDBMS?

Data context. Is your current data collection program covering data sets that are key to the problem and/or assist in the analysis of big data that will yield valuable insights for the senior team? Is 3rd party data required and if so, are you set up for this??

These are some points I think you should look at before engaging in big data analysis. Even if you feel you should proceed, the value you get from a consultant if you have already made a start will be much higher for this prior effort!


Sustainable is a relative word but adaptability is universal! In this information age, our ability to adapt to the changing environment will ultimately determine our fate, which is why big data usage is too important to not understand first and use second! Data driven processes leading to data driven decisions at the top will not only alter the success rate of the decision for the better, it will also change the culture and practice of the business to a more sustainable footing, which is the space between people, process and technology; securing a path ahead to a better tomorrow! All this in mind, why not start looking at your big data options today?  You may be pleasantly surprised!


Sources/Credits:

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Credits;

*Professor Roberto Cabeza, from Duke University, North Carolina, United States, said: "Older people have learned to be less affected by negative information in order to maintain their well being and emotional state.”


**McKinsey & Co article on big data digitizing oil and gas at http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/energy_resources_materials/digitizing_oil_and_gas_production


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