Planning for the future in uncertain Times…
Whether you are a multinational or a private citizen, what planning direction to go in after nearly a decade of economic and financial turmoil is a real challenge! The narrowing of wealth distribution tops the list of macro economic maladies affecting corporations and the working man alike. Unfortunately, this sets the stage for future economic crises that will carry our current problems forward should the pattern of behaviours at all levels not change.
The main considerations
of anybody planning should be the direction of future activity that is
beneficial to the individual and/or the organisation. It is not possible to get
all things right but in general terms, the following should be borne in mind
for strategising on future spending and direction:
Economy - understand economic growth that
correlates to real world metrics separating statistical inconsistencies that
skew the picture of growth on the ground from more accurate metrics showing the
state of the economy. For example, Ireland on the ground is experiencing growth
of about 3-4% GDP whereas the central statistics office reported 26% GDP over
the same period. Tax Inversion has effectively distorted Ireland’s growth
trajectory, which if taken at face value can lead to a dangerously positive
outlook on big decisions. Economic upturn in fact can transform into fantasy.
GDP against GNP, % of Sales Tax/VAT to overall tax, jobs created to unemployed
registers are all good metrics. They provide a broader macro economic view of
the economy where one can reasonably assess future expectations.
Politics - how stable and engaged are government
in the management of the economy and its infrastructure? Also, how committed
are they at stimulating growth? Is there any help for a direction you may take
and how will government react if it all goes wrong for you?
Currency - will currency remain stable to positive
and will capital markets pose any risk to your plans directly or indirectly via
wider economy impact of currency and/or trade movements? Will the basics in
life become dearer, cheaper or remain relatively stable? If in exports as a
business, how will currency movements affect trade and what exposures are
present in goods transit and/or associated costs? If a multinational, what
capital controls are likely in territories where you have assets in the form of
cash and/or manufacturing centres, etc. Are you locked in?
Risk - do you know the strengths and
weaknesses of your plans? Are your risks both positive and negative cataloged
by their likelihood to happen along with the impact of it actually happening?
Support - do you have what you essentially need
to achieve your plans bearing the above environmental factors in mind. E.g. Are
finance, logistical, educational and technical supports in place? Do you have a
plan b, c and so on if unforeseen problems block your progress?
It’s not easy in our
complex and sometimes volatile world to be ready for all eventualities but our
chances of success only get better with understanding of the world around us
through engaging with it and developing a thorough approach to planning. In
times of calm, it allows us to sail better than our unplanned and unprepared
peers. In adversity, it allows us to be more focused, flexible and successful
in the game of life.
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